The contract decision
Fictional teaching case for QBA201. Company, correspondence and data are constructed.
From Mariam, owner · Monday morning
“We cannot afford a bad contract. We also cannot keep postponing every decision until we are certain.”
The 90-day software trial at your grocery delivery depot is ending. A busy campaign opens next week. The vendor’s offer expires at 5 p.m. You are the management team advising the owner.
Team challenge bonus. Each verified member of a top-scoring team receives one course percentage point. Tied top teams are joint winners. The captain saves three scored rounds. Fifteen independent questions earn 2 points each, for 30 total. Scores and team ranks update automatically when each round closes. No speed points or instructor marking.
| Term | Offer |
|---|---|
| Cash authorised today | AED 10,000 |
| Contract horizon | 180 operating days |
| Licence fee | AED 240 per operating day, paid from operating cash flow |
| Implementation | AED 7,200 paid upfront from the current cash authorisation |
| Reservation | AED 1,000 non-refundable to preserve the price for seven days |
Sign the full offer, buy seven days, negotiate conditions, or decline. A negotiation is conditional on vendor agreement. You must defend the cash requirement, evidence, customer risk and opportunity cost of your recommendation.
“Average savings were AED 340 a day. That easily beats a licence price of AED 240. The pilot already proves the business case.”
Pilot summary includes 12 selected quiet operating days, mean daily gross savings AED 340, sample SD AED 60. The vendor used experienced staff and did not attach a dispatch report.
Join your team in the class lobby before Round 1. Aim for five or six members and choose one captain to submit answers. You can combine roles or leave some open. Bring a concern to the decision, then listen to the other briefs.
“I can authorise AED 10,000 today.”
The offer covers180 operating days, with a fee of AED 240 per day and setup of AED 7,200 upfront. Audits and reservation come from the same cash. Later licence bills use operating cash flow. Include every contract cost when deciding whether gross savings cover the project.
“Waiting also has a cost.”
The manual batching process requires overtime. Implementation takes five working days. The campaign opens next week. Signing today permits implementation in time. A non-refundable AED 1,000 reservation holds the price for seven days but misses the opening week. Explain the commercial cost of waiting as well as the risk of rushing.
“Saving money cannot be the only measure.”
Your recommended condition is population mean dispatch lateness below 2 minutes. Lateness is measured against the scheduled release time. Negative values mean early dispatch. Consider how to monitor customer performance if the evidence is inconclusive.
“Which population does the spreadsheet describe?”
For this exercise, verified records are independent representative observations from stable normal populations for the proposed operation. Population SD of daily savings is unknown. Population SD of dispatch lateness is stipulated to be 2.4 minutes. Challenge the vendor’s sample selection.
Open this page after recording your first position.
The trial archive spans 90 operating days. The internal savings report uses 16 sampled days. The independent audit can verify a separate, preselected 64-day sample from unused trial records. Audit dispatch records are also disjoint from the first sample. Assume the representative, independent normal models described in the analyst brief remain valid for the planned operation.
| Report | Savings | Dispatch |
|---|---|---|
| Sample unit | Operating day | Dispatch |
| Sample size | 16 | 36 |
| Sample mean | AED 300 gross saving per day | 1.6 minutes lateness |
| Variability | Sample SD AED 80; population SD unknown | Known population SD 2.4 minutes |
Gross labour savings exclude licence and implementation charges. Dispatch lateness is measured relative to the scheduled release time. The customer lead recommends a population mean below 2 minutes.
Use 5% significance, chosen before seeing the internal reports. Use the general tables or a suitable calculator.
| Plan | Cost | What is delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Savings audit | AED 1,800 | Verified results from 64 unused trial days |
| Dispatch audit | AED 1,800 | Verified results from 100 unused dispatch records |
| Both | AED 3,600 | Both fixed-sample reports |
| Neither | AED 0 | Proceed with the existing evidence |
The auditors already hold the records in sealed report packages. Fees pay for verification and release today. Choose once before opening the new results.
Entries are critical values for the upper-tail probabilities in the headings. Use symmetry for the lower tail.
| Degrees of freedom | 0.100 | 0.050 | 0.025 | 0.010 | 0.005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1.363 | 1.796 | 2.201 | 2.718 | 3.106 |
| 15 | 1.341 | 1.753 | 2.131 | 2.602 | 2.947 |
| 24 | 1.318 | 1.711 | 2.064 | 2.492 | 2.797 |
| 30 | 1.310 | 1.697 | 2.042 | 2.457 | 2.750 |
| 60 | 1.296 | 1.671 | 2.000 | 2.390 | 2.660 |
| 63 | 1.295 | 1.669 | 1.998 | 2.387 | 2.656 |
| 99 | 1.290 | 1.660 | 1.984 | 2.365 | 2.626 |
Entries give the probability to the left of a standard normal value. The row gives units and tenths. The column gives hundredths.
| z | .00 | .01 | .02 | .03 | .04 | .05 | .06 | .07 | .08 | .09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | 0.5000 | 0.5040 | 0.5080 | 0.5120 | 0.5160 | 0.5199 | 0.5239 | 0.5279 | 0.5319 | 0.5359 |
| 0.1 | 0.5398 | 0.5438 | 0.5478 | 0.5517 | 0.5557 | 0.5596 | 0.5636 | 0.5675 | 0.5714 | 0.5753 |
| 0.2 | 0.5793 | 0.5832 | 0.5871 | 0.5910 | 0.5948 | 0.5987 | 0.6026 | 0.6064 | 0.6103 | 0.6141 |
| 0.3 | 0.6179 | 0.6217 | 0.6255 | 0.6293 | 0.6331 | 0.6368 | 0.6406 | 0.6443 | 0.6480 | 0.6517 |
| 0.4 | 0.6554 | 0.6591 | 0.6628 | 0.6664 | 0.6700 | 0.6736 | 0.6772 | 0.6808 | 0.6844 | 0.6879 |
| 0.5 | 0.6915 | 0.6950 | 0.6985 | 0.7019 | 0.7054 | 0.7088 | 0.7123 | 0.7157 | 0.7190 | 0.7224 |
| 0.6 | 0.7257 | 0.7291 | 0.7324 | 0.7357 | 0.7389 | 0.7422 | 0.7454 | 0.7486 | 0.7517 | 0.7549 |
| 0.7 | 0.7580 | 0.7611 | 0.7642 | 0.7673 | 0.7704 | 0.7734 | 0.7764 | 0.7794 | 0.7823 | 0.7852 |
| 0.8 | 0.7881 | 0.7910 | 0.7939 | 0.7967 | 0.7995 | 0.8023 | 0.8051 | 0.8078 | 0.8106 | 0.8133 |
| 0.9 | 0.8159 | 0.8186 | 0.8212 | 0.8238 | 0.8264 | 0.8289 | 0.8315 | 0.8340 | 0.8365 | 0.8389 |
| 1.0 | 0.8413 | 0.8438 | 0.8461 | 0.8485 | 0.8508 | 0.8531 | 0.8554 | 0.8577 | 0.8599 | 0.8621 |
| 1.1 | 0.8643 | 0.8665 | 0.8686 | 0.8708 | 0.8729 | 0.8749 | 0.8770 | 0.8790 | 0.8810 | 0.8830 |
| 1.2 | 0.8849 | 0.8869 | 0.8888 | 0.8907 | 0.8925 | 0.8944 | 0.8962 | 0.8980 | 0.8997 | 0.9015 |
| 1.3 | 0.9032 | 0.9049 | 0.9066 | 0.9082 | 0.9099 | 0.9115 | 0.9131 | 0.9147 | 0.9162 | 0.9177 |
| 1.4 | 0.9192 | 0.9207 | 0.9222 | 0.9236 | 0.9251 | 0.9265 | 0.9279 | 0.9292 | 0.9306 | 0.9319 |
| 1.5 | 0.9332 | 0.9345 | 0.9357 | 0.9370 | 0.9382 | 0.9394 | 0.9406 | 0.9418 | 0.9429 | 0.9441 |
| 1.6 | 0.9452 | 0.9463 | 0.9474 | 0.9484 | 0.9495 | 0.9505 | 0.9515 | 0.9525 | 0.9535 | 0.9545 |
| 1.7 | 0.9554 | 0.9564 | 0.9573 | 0.9582 | 0.9591 | 0.9599 | 0.9608 | 0.9616 | 0.9625 | 0.9633 |
| 1.8 | 0.9641 | 0.9649 | 0.9656 | 0.9664 | 0.9671 | 0.9678 | 0.9686 | 0.9693 | 0.9699 | 0.9706 |
| 1.9 | 0.9713 | 0.9719 | 0.9726 | 0.9732 | 0.9738 | 0.9744 | 0.9750 | 0.9756 | 0.9761 | 0.9767 |
| 2.0 | 0.9772 | 0.9778 | 0.9783 | 0.9788 | 0.9793 | 0.9798 | 0.9803 | 0.9808 | 0.9812 | 0.9817 |
| 2.1 | 0.9821 | 0.9826 | 0.9830 | 0.9834 | 0.9838 | 0.9842 | 0.9846 | 0.9850 | 0.9854 | 0.9857 |
| 2.2 | 0.9861 | 0.9864 | 0.9868 | 0.9871 | 0.9875 | 0.9878 | 0.9881 | 0.9884 | 0.9887 | 0.9890 |
| 2.3 | 0.9893 | 0.9896 | 0.9898 | 0.9901 | 0.9904 | 0.9906 | 0.9909 | 0.9911 | 0.9913 | 0.9916 |
| 2.4 | 0.9918 | 0.9920 | 0.9922 | 0.9925 | 0.9927 | 0.9929 | 0.9931 | 0.9932 | 0.9934 | 0.9936 |
| 2.5 | 0.9938 | 0.9940 | 0.9941 | 0.9943 | 0.9945 | 0.9946 | 0.9948 | 0.9949 | 0.9951 | 0.9952 |
| 2.6 | 0.9953 | 0.9955 | 0.9956 | 0.9957 | 0.9959 | 0.9960 | 0.9961 | 0.9962 | 0.9963 | 0.9964 |
| 2.7 | 0.9965 | 0.9966 | 0.9967 | 0.9968 | 0.9969 | 0.9970 | 0.9971 | 0.9972 | 0.9973 | 0.9974 |
| 2.8 | 0.9974 | 0.9975 | 0.9976 | 0.9977 | 0.9977 | 0.9978 | 0.9979 | 0.9979 | 0.9980 | 0.9981 |
| 2.9 | 0.9981 | 0.9982 | 0.9982 | 0.9983 | 0.9984 | 0.9984 | 0.9985 | 0.9985 | 0.9986 | 0.9986 |
| 3.0 | 0.9987 | 0.9987 | 0.9987 | 0.9988 | 0.9988 | 0.9989 | 0.9989 | 0.9989 | 0.9990 | 0.9990 |